Meta Just Started Burning Cash to Build AI, and the Market's Record on Past Burners Is Short and Mixed

Meta posted its first negative free cash flow since 2012 as capex of $34.91 billion, including finance-lease principal, outran operating cash flow of $32.79 billion. Two hyperscalers that sustained this crossover, Amazon from late 2021 to early 2023 and Oracle since mid-2025, underperformed the S&P 500 in the year after reporting it, and Oracle is now down 52% over twelve months.