Homebuilders Rallied When the 10-Year Peaked in 2023. This Time the Fed Is Hiking.

When the 10-year last neared 5% in October 2023, homebuilders (ITB) fell about 20% from their summer high, then ripped roughly 60% higher as the 10-year fell back and markets began pricing cuts. This time the 10-year is near 5% (4.98% at the October 29 close), the Fed has turned to hiking, and the margin cushion that carried the group is thinnest exactly where order books are weakest.