The Dow Is on Track to Beat the Nasdaq by Five Points, and Past Signals Saw the Market Stall for Six Months

Since 1971 the Dow has beaten the Nasdaq Composite by five points or more in a completed month 40 times, and on average all three major indices have lagged their baselines over the next six months. The Nasdaq’s average forward 12-month return drops from 13.1% to 0.5%, but the real tell is whether these months cluster, and 2026 has one completed signal with October on pace for a second.